{"id":1489,"date":"2026-04-05T00:46:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T23:46:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/?p=1489"},"modified":"2026-04-05T08:55:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T07:55:50","slug":"cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/en\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/","title":{"rendered":"The (Sorry) State of the Nation"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we launch our Senedd election blog and look to provide you with some insight into what\u2019s going on, we\u2019re pleased to welcome back contributor Gareth Leaman – who has gone on to write for Novara among other things – and who in this three part article gives us a sense of the lay of the land, why Reform are popular, and how election defeat for them would be far from the end of the story\u2026<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Gareth has discussed aspects of these issues in his article for Novara<\/a> analysing last October\u2019s Caerphilly by-election, so we\u2019d thoroughly recommend reading that too!\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

With the next Senedd election fast approaching, time is running out to say more about what the rising popularity of Reform UK could mean for Wales. So here are some of the major points to reflect on between now and the 8th of May.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under Siege<\/h2>\n

To understand how Reform UK is galvanising the political base of the Welsh right, we must situate our analysis within the <\/span>global<\/span><\/i> popular backlash against the liberal managerialism that has been the ruling political force across the western world in recent decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

This administrative class has long presided over political institutions while lacking the will and the means of resolving the crises of capitalism that negatively impact their citizens. Having dominated every level of governance for a quarter-century or more, it now finds itself under siege from above and below. From above, it is constrained by<\/span> global capital flows<\/span><\/a> largely beyond its control: international finance, globalised production and supply chains, multinational corporate power. From below, it faces widespread discontent at the consequent decline in living standards and the psychosocial malaise that ensues. In Wales, one way or another, that siege is about to break.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mass support for Welsh Labour is ending forever<\/h2>\n

\"File:Rallying<\/p>\n

The British Labour party is one such beleaguered institution. In Wales in particular, their long-crumbling political authority is finally on the verge of collapse. This shouldn\u2019t come as much of a shock, for it is the inevitable consequence of Labour\u2019s own politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the wake of Britain\u2019s post-Thatcherite transformation, Labour has long neglected \u2013 and at times willingly dismantled \u2013 the very social conditions that produced the party and the culture that sustained it. Parties exist as the expression of the vested interest of a certain sect of society. In the case of the Labour Party, its historical reason for being is tied inexorably to the history of industry, the communities built around it, and the trade unions that bonded its workers. As these institutional pillars disintegrate (which we can see all around us in postindustrial Wales), so too does the Labour Party, for it is no longer the articulation of a coherent, mass voting bloc. <\/span>The infamous Peter Mandelson assertion<\/span><\/a> that the working class are wedded to the Labour Party because \u2018they have nowhere else to go\u2019 may have held true for a time, but this means little if the labourite working class has been fragmented and disempowered beyond recognition.<\/span><\/p>\n

This world of Labour and Labourism is never coming back. If they somehow cling to power in May, even a tentative glance at the material conditions that constitute Welsh politics will tell you that their era is over.<\/span><\/p>\n

Labour seems to have become an afterthought in public consciousness remarkably quickly. It is suddenly received wisdom that they are finished as a political force. Reform\u2019s rise is monopolising the popular media narrative, and left-liberals are regrouping with desperate agility under the auspices of Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. Yet despite all this, we can still only understand this election through the lens of Labour, for it is specifically the phenomena driving Labour\u2019s collapse that are simultaneously catalysing Reform\u2019s rise: deindustrialisation, the hollowing out of the social state, community disintegration, cultural anomie, mass political impotence, and so on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Welsh devolution\u2019s legacy is mass resentment for the class that has overseen it<\/h2>\n

As has been documented countless times now, Welsh devolution\u2019s <\/span>\u2018passive revolution\u2019<\/span><\/a> (essentially Labour\u2019s control of a potentially radical process, for its own political ends) was always destined to engender a crisis of legitimacy for the political class responsible for administering it. The limited autonomy of the Senedd has led its custodians to be seen \u2013 correctly \u2013 as patsies for political decisions made elsewhere: Westminster, at one point the European Union (hence the popularity of Brexit in Wales), international quangos and private capital, etc.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Senedd has little means of making meaningful material improvements to people\u2019s lives, and so its popular perception \u2013 sometimes unfairly, but often not \u2013 is that it has little impact upon its citizens beyond impotent, bureaucratic meddling. As a result, devolution as a concept is widely resented and discredited \u2013 and with it Welsh Labour, for they have come to be seen as one and the same in the eyes of many.<\/span><\/p>\n

We are witnessing in the Senedd an intensification of the problems we see<\/span>\u00a0at local council level<\/span><\/a>, and will soon see in Westminster: a backlash against capital\u2019s failing managerialists. In the next instalment of this series, we\u2019ll look at the party positioning itself to best exploit this.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we launch our Senedd election blog and look to provide you with some insight into what\u2019s going on, we\u2019re pleased to welcome back contributor Gareth Leaman – who has … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The (Sorry) State of the Nation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":1492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-heb-gategori","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe (Sorry) State of the Nation - undod<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The (Sorry) State of the Nation - undod\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As we launch our Senedd election blog and look to provide you with some insight into what\u2019s going on, we\u2019re pleased to welcome back contributor Gareth Leaman – who has … Continue reading "The (Sorry) State of the Nation"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/en\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"undod\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/undodcymru\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-04T23:46:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-05T07:55:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1280px-Eluned_Morgan_MS_nominated_as_First_Minister_6_August_2024_Enwebu_Eluned_Morgan_AS_yn_Brif_Weinidog_6_Awst_2024_53908305125.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"853\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gareth Leaman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@undodcymru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@undodcymru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gareth Leaman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gareth Leaman\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/31e0997c167a83676386bd50477db11d\"},\"headline\":\"The (Sorry) State of the Nation\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-04T23:46:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-05T07:55:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\"},\"wordCount\":1828,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1280px-Eluned_Morgan_MS_nominated_as_First_Minister_6_August_2024_Enwebu_Eluned_Morgan_AS_yn_Brif_Weinidog_6_Awst_2024_53908305125.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/undod.cymru\/2026\/04\/05\/cyflwr-gwael-y-genedl\/\",\"name\":\"The (Sorry) State of the Nation - 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