In October 2025 a byelection was held in Caerffili and the results were watched closely all over Britain. According to many commentators, what happened in Caerffili would be a sign of things to come seven months down the line, following May 2026\u2019s Senedd elections. During months of speculation, there was a consensus that Labour would lose their seat and that this byelection would be a battle between Reform and Plaid Cymru. In the end, Plaid Cymru won. Hopes on the Left were raised, and there is still a pervading feeling that what happened in Caerffili in October is a sign of likely voting intentions next month.<\/p>\n
The Valleys are a fairly big area and \u2013 maybe because their people, like the public transport, tend not to cross valleys \u2013 the nature of each one is different. Despite the similarities between them, there are distinct circumstances that led to Plaid Cymru\u2019s victory in Caerffili and, as a result, reasons to be unsure of how things will play out in the former coal fields in May.<\/p>\n
Plaid Cymru has a long history of activism and campaigning in Caerffili, and the increase in Welsh-medium schools in the area testifies to the hard work of local members and parents over decades.\u00a0 In addition to this, Plaid Cymru held a majority in the Council in 1999 and were equal with Labour in 2008, though it was Plaid who led the Council during that period. The situation is different in Merthyr Tudful, for example.<\/p>\n
There is no Welsh-medium secondary school in Merthyr County Borough, with pupils travelling to Hirwaun in Rhondda Cynon Taf; there is no genuine sympathy amongst Councillors with parents\u2019 call for a Welsh medium secondary school in the borough for their children (unlike Plaid\u2019s support on Caerffili Council); and there have been no Plaid Cymru councillors in Merthyr since 1999. Plaid Cymru always has representation on Caerffili Council even if they don\u2019t hold a majority. It\u2019s also important to note that not one Reform member sits on Caerffili Council while Merthyr Tudful and Blaenau Gwent each have one.<\/p>\n
Even in Caerffili, Reform\u2019s vote rose from 495 in 2021 to 12,113 in 2025. This is an outstanding increase, showing that despite Plaid Cymru\u2019s victory, Reform are doing well.<\/p>\n
But what attracts Reform voters in the Valleys to the party? I live in the area myself and many people here support Reform, intending to give them their vote in May. There has been much talk in the media about the effects of foreign money on Reform, and the influence and marketing that money and contacts can buy. But from conversations I\u2019ve had, and overheard on the streets here, there are local and historical concerns that influence the support of many.<\/p>\n
The demographic that I\u2019m thinking about are the over 50s. In the valleys, most of us have fathers or grandfathers who spent their working lives down the pit, and many of the Reform supporters that I know are ex-miners themselves, although they are too young to have had lifelong work as miners.<\/p>\n
Most of these people saw a decline in their fathers\u2019 health and physical abilities \u2013 which is an extremely difficult thing to witness. The village where I live is typical of the valleys: one steep hill leading to the mountain and houses built in terraces into the hillside. In the past, on a Saturday night, the wives would bound up the hill to the Club to hold seats and tables for the men, because the men \u2013 with lungs full of dust \u2013 would make their way up slowly, stopping at each lamppost to catch their breath. The children of these men are now in their 60s \u2013 and they are angry. Seeing their fathers so weak was heartbreaking. During the 1990s there came an opportunity for compensation. Pop-up centres opened all over the valleys where miners and ex-miners could be tested to see whether or not there was any coal dust on their lungs. The answer, almost unfailingly, was that there was no dust present: the breathing difficulties arose solely from the cigarettes they smoked.<\/p>\n
When a miner dies, the family has the right to ask for a post mortem. Most families take this opportunity. With the lifelong miners, when the coroner\u2019s reports came back, families were told that the bodies of their fathers, their grandfathers, were completely black inside \u2013 despite everything they were told in the pop-up compensation centres. The huge pile of compensation forms would be passed on to their grieving wives to complete.<\/p>\n
Many people in this area vote for Reform because Nigel Farage spoke out about the disgrace of the Miners’ pension scandal and the money they were owed. His promise to right this wrong was even published in a previous manifesto.<\/p>\n
If the pits had closed, and green energy had been introduced in place of coal, many of these men have said that they could have accepted the situation. But Britain continues to import coal from overseas in order to maintain its infrastructure. Ex-miners are angry about this too, and are attracted to the way Reform talks about reintroducing industry to Wales, for example its support for the steel industry.<\/p>\n
They also share Reform\u2019s suspicion about green energy. Many people in this area understand a lot about Britain\u2019s energy systems, how they work and how they are supplied \u2013 the subject is of interest to them because of their background. Many Reform voters are uneasy about the liberal left\u2019s enthusiasm for green energy. They see it as a way for big companies to profit from the next big green idea, without ever truly benefiting ordinary people through green job opportunities or cheaper energy. They talk about the current drive towards electric cars, and the big car companies and accompanying infrastructure that will benefit from this latest project, while we already have cars that work. In all the talk of greener travel successive Governments do not do enough to support public transport \u2013 but they are willing to line the pockets of big business by forcing an unaffordable change to electric vehicles. In many areas of the valleys, we are now completely dependent on our cars. Meanwhile big corporations can basically do what they like: as long as they plant trees to offset the damage they cause.<\/p>\n
If mining communities had been at the forefront of green energy, and if the Welsh coalfields along with the others in Britain had been able to show the world how a green future could be achieved and what that could look like, things could have been different. But as these communities are very aware of the way governments lie, they cannot trust in the idea of green energy as inherently good.<\/p>\n
Once again, they feel that it is Reform who voices these uncertainties \u2013 worries that don\u2019t seem to register with the ruling class and the middle class of the liberal left. \u00a0And yet, after seeing the demise of their fathers, many don\u2019t want to return to the physical hardship of coal mining either.<\/p>\n
One question raised is: why don\u2019t Reform voters vote for Plaid Cymru, if their main aim is to stick up two fingers to the status quo? A Plaid Cymru vote could be seen as a step towards dismantling the British state once and for all. But this is problematic in the Valleys. Many families are involved, in one way or another, with the armed forces, and are proud of family members who have served in them. People even feel the need to protect Britain – at the moment from Muslims. And for many in Valleys, despite the strength of their Welsh identity, Britain is also their country.<\/p>\n
There is much talk by the far right of Muslims preparing to take over Britain. In the Valleys, when the coal mines closed, a whole world came to an end. Imagining the end of the world as you know it is easier if you have already experienced such an event once before. Many are willing to take to the streets to protest. It\u2019s a way of holding on to the remains of that first world lost to them, and the fragments of it that still just about exist.<\/p>\n
When I asked different people how they felt about the Caerffili byelection on that morning when the results came through, the reaction was: \u201cYes, great! Anything to get Labour out!\u201d Discussing the Senedd elections in May many have enthusiastically proclaimed their support for Reform. When I answer by mentioning my support for the Communist Party the response that comes back is always positive and sympathetic.<\/p>\n
Socialism and communism are familiar to them and people here are not against those concepts. They are often proud of their fathers\u2019 roles in the trade unions, proud of the hard battle fought during the miners\u2019 strike and furious, still, about the way these communities were treated by Thatcher and her government. But they don\u2019t see signs of socialist ideals in the policies of Labour nor Plaid Cymru. And with Reform they feel that Farage speaks openly about the things that irritate them, when nobody else does.<\/p>\n
People are complex. Our hopes, fears and the things that make us proud are often tangled and contradictory. None of the mainstream parties, in reality, represent one of the biggest demographics of this area. So why wouldn\u2019t they vote Reform? Nothing ever changes, anyway.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In October 2025 a byelection was held in Caerffili and the results were watched closely all over Britain. According to many commentators, what happened in Caerffili would be a sign … <\/p>\n